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白酒行业两极分化加剧 品牌集中度将逐步提升

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2016中部(江西)糖酒食品交易会今天在南昌国际展览中心举行。此次展会将秉承专业、创新的思路,整合行业优质资源,进一步贴近市场需求,提供专业、高效的服务,力争把本届糖酒会打造成“专业化、品牌化”的高品质盛会,有望推动我国白酒产业快速健康发展。

今年以来,多家酒企纷纷上调了其高端白酒产品的价格。今年1月,茅台发布了《关于2016年1月份合同计划执行的通知》,各专卖店、经销类合同单位遵照合同约定按月执行,公司不再安排提前执行2月、3月合同计划,将以往按季度发货调整成为按月发货。茅台实行旺季前控量保价使市场批价由825元上涨到850元。今年3日,52度水晶瓶五粮液的出厂价从659元/瓶涨至679元/瓶。五粮液1618及低度五粮液在内的五粮液系列产品也根据市场供需情况适时进行调整。另外,今年5月,泸州老窖1573系列的超高端产品“中国品味”提价,涨价幅度为15%左右。6月,微酒网透露,国窖1573经典装自6月16日起全面停货。

分析人士认为,白酒行业经历了4年的深度调整后,无论是企业库存还是渠道库存都得到了一定程度的释放。随着行业走出低谷,白酒企业提价意愿强烈。今年一季度,部分高端白酒企业提价带动了整个白酒价格体系趋稳,行业盈利略有回升。目前,白酒行业基本面处于逆转拐点,白酒行业有望步入新一轮提价周期,今年下半年白酒行业仍有上涨空间。

随着优势酒企效率提高以及并购进程的推进将加速白酒品牌集中度的提升。与发达国家白酒行业相比,我国白酒行业前十家企业的产出仅占总产量的25%左右,而发达国家占比普遍达到50%以上,美国占比达到了近70%,未来我国白酒行业集中度提升空间较大。另外,白酒企业除了自身扩张之外,还将通过并购实现全国化布局。目前,白酒行业分化愈加明显,具备品牌影响力和渠道优势的大型酒企将保持较好的增长势头,在提高企业规模和盈利能力的同时,将进一步提升自身品牌的集中度。

从价格方面来看,500元以上的高端白酒产品增长趋势较为明显。去年开始,高端白酒销售开始回升,占比提升至10%以上。有机构认为,这类酒企产品供应量相对受限,品牌突出、盈利能力及抗风险能力较强,竞争格局相对较好,产品变相降价以及消费升级的加速有望带来明显的放量。2016年高端白酒占比有望回升至11%以上;300元至500元的次高端白酒产品增速较快,市场规模约250亿元。在前期充分调整以及商务、婚宴消费的带动下,主流白酒产品增长将在30%左右;80元至300元的中高端白酒产品体量较大,门槛相对较低,较容易产生大单品,具有品牌和渠道优势的企业将更具发展优势;80元以下的低端白酒产品聚集了大量品牌,产品销量占行业的90%以上,竞争程度为激烈。

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